COVID
The physician called the CDC’s new mask guidelines “reasonable, well-timed and consistent with the science.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new masking guidelines that put most of the country in counties that don’t need to mask are “reasonable, well-timed and consistent with the science,” wrote Dr. Ashish Jha.
In a Feb. 25 New York Times op-ed, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health expressed his support for the shift away from relying solely on positive test counts to inform public health mandates.
The new guidance, released Feb. 25, categorizes counties as low, medium, or high risk for poor outcomes and recommends universal masking indoors only in high-risk areas. Importantly, Jha said, the new guidance takes into consideration the health care system capacity in determining risk level. Right now, more than 70% of the United States population is in an area with low or medium community risk.
Though the guidance may feel like a sharp departure from previous policies, Jha wrote the change is “entirely appropriate.”
“A virus and a population interact in a dizzyingly dynamic system, with mutations and layering immunity forming different profiles of population-wide risk at different times,” he wrote. “Policy does and should recognize when these factors have changed enough to justify new approaches.”
Jha also pointed to the omicron variant in justifying the CDC’s changes, saying that the “surge changed everything.”
“Hospital capacity matters enormously,” he wrote, because when hospitals are stretched with COVID-19 patients they can also no longer provide high-quality care for patients with a myriad of other conditions like heart attacks and appendicitis.
Jha expanded on all these points in his New York Times op-ed.
He warned that this may not spell the forever end of masks for most Americans — mitigation efforts like testing, avoiding gatherings, and masking will still be important to help limit spread, especially if there is a threat of another surge.
“Changing the way we use these tools — when to pull them out and when to put them away — is a critical part of managing a pandemic effectively,” Jha wrote. “The C.D.C.’s new guidance does just that by focusing on the metrics that matter most at this point in the pandemic.”
For two months, I’ve said we’re entering a new phase of the pandemic
A phase marked by a lot of population immunity, a more immune-evasive but less virulent virus
This new phase requires new metrics
My @nytopinion piece on the latest CDC metricshttps://t.co/lvmwwJjILZ
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022
That tight link between cases –> hospitalizations –> deaths was true for original strain
And for Alpha
And for DeltaBut Omicron severed that link (mostly)
Now, if you told me there were a 1000 new cases
I can no longer tell how many will end up hospitalized or dead
3/n
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022
We need a more wholistic view
And that’s why we need to look at hospitalizations too
And there’s one more thing
Healthcare capacity varies widely across U.S.
In some places, hospitals can handle a surge more easily than others
And we know hospital capacity is critical
5/8
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022
This is why I like the CDC measures
It brings together what we care about: infections (cases), severe disease (hospitalizations) and hospital capacity
Is it perfect? No
Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator
And they don’t incorporate community vaccination rates
But..
7/9
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022
But these new metrics mark an important shift
Because when we see future surges or variants
It’ll be in a population with a lot of immunity — from vaccinates and prior infections
And that means looking at cases alone won’t be enough
A wholistic approach is better
End
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022
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COVID The physician called the CDC’s new mask guidelines “reasonable, well-timed and consistent with the science.” A man dons a mask while walking in Downtown Crossing Feb. 10. Pat Greenhouse/Globe Staff The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new masking guidelines that put most of the country in counties that don’t need to mask are “reasonable, well-timed and consistent with the science,” wrote Dr. Ashish Jha. In a Feb. 25 New York Times op-ed, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health expressed his support for the shift away from relying solely on positive test counts to inform public health mandates. The new guidance, released Feb. 25, categorizes counties as low, medium, or high risk for poor outcomes and recommends universal masking indoors only in high-risk areas. Importantly, Jha said, the new guidance takes into consideration the health care system capacity in determining risk level. Right now, more than 70% of the United States population is in an area with low or medium community risk. Though the guidance may feel like a sharp departure from previous policies, Jha wrote the change is “entirely appropriate.” “A virus and a population interact in a dizzyingly dynamic system, with mutations and layering immunity forming different profiles of population-wide risk at different times,” he wrote. “Policy does and should recognize when these factors have changed enough to justify new approaches.” Jha also pointed to the omicron variant in justifying the CDC’s changes, saying that the “surge changed everything.” “Hospital capacity matters enormously,” he wrote, because when hospitals are stretched with COVID-19 patients they can also no longer provide high-quality care for patients with a myriad of other conditions like heart attacks and appendicitis. Jha expanded on all these points in his New York Times op-ed. He warned that this may not spell the forever end of masks for most Americans — mitigation efforts like testing, avoiding gatherings, and masking will still be important to help limit spread, especially if there is a threat of another surge. “Changing the way we use these tools — when to pull them out and when to put them away — is a critical part of managing a pandemic effectively,” Jha wrote. “The C.D.C.’s new guidance does just that by focusing on the metrics that matter most at this point in the pandemic.” For two months, I’ve said we’re entering a new phase of the pandemicA phase marked by a lot of population immunity, a more immune-evasive but less virulent virusThis new phase requires new metricsMy @nytopinion piece on the latest CDC metricshttps://t.co/lvmwwJjILZ— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022 That tight link between cases –> hospitalizations –> deaths was true for original strainAnd for AlphaAnd for DeltaBut Omicron severed that link (mostly)Now, if you told me there were a 1000 new casesI can no longer tell how many will end up hospitalized or dead3/n— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022 We need a more wholistic viewAnd that’s why we need to look at hospitalizations tooAnd there’s one more thingHealthcare capacity varies widely across U.S.In some places, hospitals can handle a surge more easily than othersAnd we know hospital capacity is critical5/8— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022 This is why I like the CDC measuresIt brings together what we care about: infections (cases), severe disease (hospitalizations) and hospital capacityIs it perfect? NoHospitalizations are a lagging indicatorAnd they don’t incorporate community vaccination ratesBut..7/9— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022 But these new metrics mark an important shiftBecause when we see future surges or variantsIt’ll be in a population with a lot of immunity — from vaccinates and prior infectionsAnd that means looking at cases alone won’t be enoughA wholistic approach is betterEnd— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 26, 2022 Newsletter Signup Stay up to date on all the latest news from Boston.com In Related News